✓ “Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
After a few years where the best picture winner was practically ordained from the start of the season, at least this race has given us some twists and turns.
First, there was the saga of “Emilia Pérez,” which led the field with a near-record 13 nominations but collapsed in controversy after the unearthing of disparaging tweets by its star, Karla Sofía Gascón. Then “Anora,” a front-runner that was utterly shut out at January’s Golden Globes, scored top prizes from the producers, directors and writers guilds.
Those wins usually presage a best picture victory, especially because the producers guild uses a preferential ballot similar to the Academy’s. But in the late going, another contender began to surge as “Conclave” took the top prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards (where “Anora” was once again shut out) as well as best film honors at the BAFTAs, the British equivalent to the Oscars.
One thing gives me pause, though: If “Conclave” had the sort of across-the-board Academy support that a best picture winner can usually count on, it shouldn’t have missed out on slam-dunk Oscar nominations for directing and cinematography. “Anora” earned all the nominations it needed to, and its guild spread is hard to argue with, so that’s the film I project will win.
Best Director
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
✓ Sean Baker, “Anora”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Baker picked up the DGA trophy but has strong competition from Corbet, who won best director at the BAFTAs. Still, I suspect the Academy will embrace “Anora” in both of the top categories. It helps that Baker has turned every acceptance speech he’s made this season into an upbeat rallying cry for theatrical independent filmmaking.
Best Actor
✓ Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Brody has been collecting prizes all season, though his reign was halted last weekend when Chalamet scored a last-minute SAG win. But Chalamet faces headwinds from an Academy that remains stubbornly resistant to recognizing young men: No one under 30 has ever won the best actor Oscar except for Brody himself, who notched his win for “The Pianist” at age 29. Come Sunday, he’ll add a second Oscar to the mantel.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
✓ Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
No race gives me more agita than this one. Moore gave barnburning comeback speeches as she took top prizes at SAG, Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. Madison scored at the BAFTAs and Independent Spirit Awards, and she leads the film that is likely to win best picture. And then there’s Torres, who stars in the Brazilian film “I’m Still Here”: It pays to be the last contender people watch, and she’s getting a lot of votes from Academy members who are just now catching up with her film. With things so close between Moore and Madison, I wonder if voters won’t be tempted to choose Torres as a third-party alternative. Still, any of those women can win.
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
✓ Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Culkin has cruised to victory at every major awards show this season, and his free-associative acceptance speeches have become reliable show highlights. Surely, the Oscars won’t miss the chance to have their own memorable moment with him. (Can someone tell the orchestra to let Culkin cook instead of playing him off?)
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
✓ Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
If there’s one awards bid that has survived the collapse of the “Emilia Pérez” campaign, it’s Saldaña’s: She started picking up prizes in January at the Golden Globes and has continued to dominate ever since. Voters aren’t likely to hold the movie’s controversies against Saldaña, who has labored in giant blockbusters like “Avatar” for years and finally found a role that could show off everything she’s capable of.
✓ “Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Real Pain”
“September 5”
“The Substance”
The path to best picture almost always winds its way through the screenplay categories, so I have my eye on “Anora” here. Some late drama was injected into the race when Jesse Eisenberg’s script for “A Real Pain” won at both the BAFTAs and the Independent Spirit Awards. Still, “A Real Pain” couldn’t manage a best picture nomination, and ever since the Academy expanded the field for the top prize past five nominees, no film has won a screenplay Oscar without that best picture nod.
Best Adapted Screenplay
✓ “Conclave”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nickel Boys”
“Sing Sing”
I’ve spoken to voters who adored “Nickel Boys” and “Sing Sing” and feel this is the best category to make that love known. Still, if “Conclave” means to put up a real best picture challenge, there’s no reason for it to lose here. If it does falter, “Anora” is practically guaranteed the final victory of the night.
Best Animated Feature
✓ “Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”
Last year, the highbrow international pick (“The Boy and the Heron”) defeated the homegrown hit (“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”). With that in mind, I think the soulful Latvian stunner “Flow” could eke out a victory over two Hollywood hits, “Inside Out 2” and “The Wild Robot.” Still, this will be a close three-way race.
Best Documentary Feature
“Black Box Diaries”
✓ “No Other Land”
“Porcelain War”
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
“Sugarcane”
Here’s another tricky category to call. The last two movies to win here were about resisting Russia, so the safe bet would be the Ukraine war film “Porcelain War.” But I’ve spoken to a lot of Oscar voters who simply haven’t caught up with the contenders in this category, and the ones that have keep voting for the harrowing West Bank drama “No Other Land.” That’s my tentative pick.
Best International Feature
✓ “I’m Still Here,” Brazil
“The Girl With the Needle,” Denmark
“Emilia Pérez,” France
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Germany
“Flow,” Latvia
Once upon a time, “Emilia Pérez” had this category utterly locked up. But with that film on the ropes, it’s “I’m Still Here” that is mounting a late surge with voters.
Best Cinematography
✓ “The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Maria”
“Nosferatu”
“The Brutalist” was made for under $10 million, but is so stunningly shot you’d think the budget was five times that amount. For delivering a lot with a little, Oscar voters will be eager to reward the cinematographer for “The Brutalist,” Lol Crawley.
Best Original Score
✓ “The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”
Justice for the unfairly snubbed score from “Challengers,” which should have won this category in a walk. But without those distinctive techno beats in the race, bet on Daniel Blumberg’s epic score from “The Brutalist” to prevail.
Best Song
✓ “El Mal” (“Emilia Pérez”)
“The Journey” (“The Six Triple Eight”)
“Like a Bird” (“Sing Sing”)
“Mi Camino” (“Emilia Pérez”)
“Never Too Late” (“Elton John: Never Too Late”)
Though “Emilia Pérez” is no longer the strong contender it once was, it should still come out on top of this weak field thanks to “El Mal,” the fiery musical number that has also been the cornerstone of Saldaña’s campaign.
Best Sound
✓ “A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”
The first “Dune” took this Oscar, and its sequel was just as technically impressive. But “A Complete Unknown” makes classic Bob Dylan songs sound brand-new, and for that, I think boomers in the Academy will want to reward it.
Best Editing
✓ “Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
Without an ostentatiously edited film in the mix this year, I project voters will simply default to the best picture front-runner, “Anora.”
Best Production Design
✓ “The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
It will be a close race with the blockbuster sets of “Wicked” and “Dune: Part Two” keeping both films in the mix, but “The Brutalist” is boosted by the fact that it’s quite literally about architecture. And what Oscar voter didn’t drool over the stunning library that Adrien Brody designed for Guy Pearce?
Best Costume Design
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
✓ “Wicked”
Up against two sequels, a horror film, and a papal thriller costumed with countless cloaks, the maximalist fashion fantasy of “Wicked” should come out ahead.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“A Different Man”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nosferatu”
✓ “The Substance”
“Wicked”
The last three winners in this category came from films that also took a lead-acting trophy. Whether or not Demi Moore prevails in the tight best actress race, her momentum will at least lift the gross-out gore of “The Substance” above the green-skinned glamour of “Wicked.”
Best Visual Effects
“Alien: Romulus”
“Better Man”
✓ “Dune: Part Two”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Wicked”
“Wicked” may have recency bias going for it, but “Dune: Part Two” is the rare modern-day blockbuster with special effects that look utterly seamless. If there’s one Oscar that Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi sequel ought to take on Sunday night, it’s this.
Best Animated Short
“Beautiful Men”
“In the Shadow of the Cypress”
✓ “Magic Candies”
“Wander to Wonder”
“Yuck!”
Shorts with an “aww” factor typically win here, so I’d expect the front-runners to be “Yuck!,” a cute story about French tykes pondering romance, and “Magic Candies,” about a lonely boy whose mysterious treats help him to read the minds of his pet and strict father. The latter has a moment or two that could coax tears, so I figure it has the edge.
Best Documentary Short
“Death by Numbers”
“I Am Ready, Warden”
✓ “Incident”
“Instruments of a Beating Heart”
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
In a category that is always filled with harrowing subject matter, voters often default to heart-warmers, and this race boasts two good-natured, music-themed shorts (“The Only Girl in the Orchestra” and “Instruments of a Beating Heart”). The smart money would be to pick one of those, yet I feel that “Incident” — an unshakable examination of Chicago police gunning down a Black man, assembled through security and body-camera footage — is simply too bold to ignore.
Best Live-Action Short
“A Lien”
“Anuja”
“I’m Not a Robot”
✓ “The Last Ranger”
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
A well-shot tear-jerker about an African ranger trying to fend off rhino poachers, “The Last Ranger” has the sweep, sentiment and real-world resonance that voters often gravitate to in this race.
