Thanks to strong price gains over the past year, Barclays (LSE:BARC) shares have eked out a solid return for investors during the past decade.

At 270.4p per share, the FTSE 100 bank’s price is 3.7% higher than it was 10 years ago. This means that £10,000 worth of Barclays shares are now worth £10,370. Not great.

But that’s only a small part of the story. When one adds in the 52.65p per share of dividends paid out in that time, Barclays has delivered a total return of 23.9%.

In monetary terms, someone who put £10k in the bank in mid-April 2015 would now be sitting on £12,390.

On the one hand, that might not be considered a bad result given the tough trading landscape for UK banks (more on this later). It’s also always worth remembering that stock prices can go up as well as down over the long term.

31.4% return?

But considering the FTSE All Share index has delivered a total return of 82.2% over the same period, suddenly Barclays’ return doesn’t look all that robust.

Can the bank’s share price perform more strongly from this point on? And should investors consider buying Barclays shares?

Unfortunately forecasts for Barclays’ share price only stretch out to the next 12 months. But they do suggest strong gains over that period.

Some 17 analysts currently have ratings on the FTSE bank. And as is the case with most equities, their share price targets for the next year differ considerably at times.

The most optimistic City broker has slapped a 410p per share price target on the high street bank. That represents a 51.6% premium from 68.6p today. At the other end of the scale, one especially bearish analyst thinks the bank will hit 230p in a year, down 14.9% from current levels.

But on balance, price forecasts among the analyst are pretty upbeat: the average 12-month target price is 346.1p, up 28% from today’s 270.4p.

With a dividend of 9.16p per share predicted for 2025 too, Barclays could deliver a total return of 31.4% over the next year if it can meet that average price goal.

Are the shares a buy to consider?

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.4 times, Barclays is currently the FTSE 100’s cheapest banking share based on expected profits. This in theory could provide the platform for industry-beating price gains over the next year.

The company also has a large investment bank which, if financial markets steadily recover, could help the business deliver stronger profits than its high street rivals.

Yet Barclays also faces substantial challenges to hitting those share price forecasts. Competition is fierce, and interest rates are coming down across its UK and US markets. Against this backdrop, I’m expecting its net interest margin to remain under severe pressure (this was just 3.29% in 2024).

Those competitive pressures, added to tough economic conditions in Britain and the possibility of a US recession, also means loan growth may continue to be underwhelming. There’s also the possibility of colossal fines if Barclays is found guilty by the UK regulator of mis-selling car loans (it’s already set aside £90m to cover such an eventuality).

Although they’re cheap, I think investors should consider steering clear of risky Barclays shares right now.