In some ways, this weekend’s pre-Christmas box office feels like a no-brainer. James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash is poised to take the top spot, but the real question is how big the opening will be.
Almost every time an Avatar movie hits theaters, box office pundits predict disappointment—only for those predictions to age poorly once the Christmas season kicks in. In fact, this has happened with all three of Cameron’s most recent films as a director. His movies rarely explode on opening weekend; instead, they’re what you might call “growers, not showers.”
How Much Will Avatar: Fire and Ash Make Opening Weekend?
With that in mind, it’s unlikely that Avatar: Fire and Ash will match or surpass the $134 million opening weekend of The Way of Water three years ago. A debut closer to **$100 million—give or take—seems more realistic.
While that figure might look mildly disappointing on paper, history has shown that betting against James Cameron is rarely a smart move. The film’s business over the holiday season should be strong, and whether it ultimately joins its predecessors on the list of the highest-grossing movies of all time remains to be seen.
Can The Housemaid Break Out Over the Holidays?
Another film drawing plenty of curiosity is The Housemaid, which boasts an undeniably hot cast, including Sydney Sweeney, Amanda Seyfried, and Brandon Sklenar.
Sklenar broke out in 1923, though his rising profile wasn’t enough to turn Drop—a fairly solid movie—into a hit. As for Sweeney, she’s arguably the most overexposed performer in Hollywood right now and could really use a win after Christy and the wave of negative press surrounding it. If The Housemaid underperforms, it could slow—or even stall—her ascent to full-blown stardom.
That said, the movie itself is a lot of fun, and the book it’s based on was a major bestseller. An opening around $15 million seems likely, but it could follow the Anyone But You model and become a quiet holiday cash machine. The adult audience it’s targeting is probably preoccupied this weekend with last-minute Christmas shopping.
Where Does The SpongeBob Movie Fit In?
Rounding out the major releases, The SpongeBob Movie: The Search for SquarePants should land squarely in the middle, with an estimated $20 million opening weekend—solid business for a family title heading into the holiday corridor.
Here are my predictions:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash – $100 million
- The SpongeBob Movie: The Search for SquarePants – $20 million
- The Housemaid: $15 million
- Zootopia 2: $12 million
- Five Nights at Freddy’s 2: $8 million
What are you seeing this weekend?
