The Las Vegas Raiders’ offseason plans may be far less predictable than expected. While many around the league assume the franchise will use the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, a new – and far more explosive – scenario is gaining traction: trading that pick for two-time MVP Lamar Jackson.

It’s still hypothetical. But with Tom Brady now deeply involved in football decisions as a minority owner, the idea is no longer far-fetched. It’s the type of aggressive swing that could define – or destabilize – the Raiders’ next era.

After a brutal 3-14 finish in 2025, owner Mark Davis has publicly signaled that Brady will have significant influence over roster direction, coaching hires, and draft philosophy. That includes the most important question of all: Who should be the face of the franchise at quarterback?

Raiders could pivot from Mendoza to Lamar Jackson

Most draft analysts have penciled Mendoza in as the top pick. The Hoosiers’ star quarterback has risen rapidly through the ranks, delivering elite performances, leadership, and poise in high-pressure moments. On paper, he represents the perfect reset button for a rebuilding franchise.

But NFL insider Mike Florio recently introduced an alternative approach: using the No. 1 overall pick as the centerpiece of a trade for Lamar Jackson.

“The first pick, which would give the Ravens a straight shot at quarterback Fernando Mendoza … for the two-time MVP who is now 29 and often injured,” Florio wrote while outlining how a Jackson trade scenario could unfold.

It’s a bold concept, but it’s grounded in logic. When healthy, Jackson remains one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in football. His combination of speed, creativity, arm talent, and leadership could immediately transform the Raiders into a legitimate AFC threat.

Adding a superstar of Jackson’s caliber would also change Las Vegas’ perception across the league. Free agents take notice. National relevance returns. Suddenly, the Raiders aren’t rebuilding – they’re contending.

Still, the obstacles are significant. Jackson would need to waive his no-trade clause, Baltimore would need to accept a blockbuster deal, and Las Vegas would need to be comfortable betting its future on a veteran quarterback with a growing injury history.

And then there’s the most important variable: Tom Brady’s opinion.

Why Tom Brady’s voice matters most

Brady’s influence isn’t symbolic; it’s structural. Insiders around the league believe he’s positioned as a central decision-maker inside the organization, particularly on quarterback evaluation.

One league voice summarized it bluntly:

“The key to a possible Jackson trade, from the Raiders’ perspective, is minority owner Tom Brady.”

That makes sense. Few people alive understand quarterback play, longevity, and championship windows better than Brady. His instincts may lean toward proven greatness over rookie projection, especially if the organization believes it can compete quickly with the right pieces.

Brady’s own career was defined by aggressive, win-now thinking. From Tampa Bay’s instant Super Bowl run to countless roster reloads in New England, he rarely embraced long rebuilds. That mindset could naturally make a player like Lamar Jackson more appealing than the developmental timeline of Mendoza.

A franchise-defining fork in the road

This decision, whether it happens or not, represents two competing philosophies:

Draft Mendoza– Patience, long-term development, controlled rebuild

Trade for Jackson- Star power, immediate relevance, higher risk, higher reward

Neither path is clearly right or wrong. But both would permanently shape the Raiders’ identity.

If Brady signs off on chasing Lamar Jackson, it would be the clearest signal yet that the Raiders are done waiting and ready to gamble big.

And in Las Vegas, big gambles are kind of the point.