Aviva‘s (LSE:AV.) share price has enjoyed blistering gains over the last year. Investors have received a juicy total return of 32.3%, including a rising dividend. But what does that mean in terms of cold, hard cash?

Since 5 February, 2025, Aviva shares have risen 26.6% in value, while its trailing dividend yield for the period is 5.7%. It means a £10,000 investment back then would have turned into £13,320 today.

By comparison, the broader FTSE 100 would have delivered a lower (if still solid) return of £12,370. The question is, can the party over at Aviva continue?

What do the experts think?

City analysts are confident Aviva’s share price can keep rising. Eighteen of them currently rate the FTSE stock, and their average 12-month price target is 697.2p, up 7.9% from today’s levels.

That’s far below the growth investors have enjoyed over the last year. And it seems to have something to do with the insurer’s current valuation. At 646.4p, its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 11.1 times, which — although not high on paper — is still above the 10-year average of 7.2.

Based on those forecasts, Aviva shares could still deliver a terrific return during the next 12 months. The company’s forward dividend is 6.4%, meaning — if all goes well — a £10,000 investment today would become £11,430 by February 2026.

What could go wrong?

Aviva faces a series of challenges that could impact investor returns over the next year. Its share price could disappoint if, for instance, consumer spending in its key UK market remains under pressure, hitting earnings. Persistently high claims inflation could also damage performance, and particularly at its general insurance unit.

Despite this, I believe Aviva is a great stock to consider. City analysts are also largely positive on the FTSE firm, with 10 rating it as a Strong Buy or Buy. Seven reckon it’s a Hold, with just one saying it’s a Strong Sell or Sell.

Will Aviva’s share price rise?

Aviva is one of the core holdings in my own portfolio, so I’ve shared in those excellent returns over the past year. But I bought it with a view to hold it for the long haul. I think its strong brand power, diverse product range, and deep balance sheet put it in great shape to capitalise on the booming financial services market.

I especially like the company’s focus on capital-light businesses. This gives it brilliant cash generation that it can use to distribute to shareholders in dividends, invest in the business, or pursue bolt-on acquisitions for growth.

Following its acquisition of rival Direct Line last year, an impressive 70% of operating profit will eventually come from capital-light businesses. That’s up from 56% in 2025.

So what can we expect in the next 12 months? Risks remain, but the firm’s resilient performance in 2025 fills me with optimism. On balance, I’m expecting another strong rise in Aviva’s share price and its dividends.