Todd McShay separated himself from the consensus on Thursday with a striking projection about Fernando Mendoza‘s NFL trajectory.
While most prominent draft analysts have penciled the Heisman Trophy winner in as the expected No. 1 overall selection for the Las Vegas Raiders, McShay believes the franchise should consider a different path entirely – trading the top pick and postponing its quarterback decision for another year.
The former ESPN analyst laid out his reasoning during an appearance on the February 13 episode of Wake Up Barstool. After finishing 3-14 last season under newly hired head coach Klint Kubiak, the Raiders have significant roster holes to address.
“You’ve got a new coach in, Klint Kubiak, who comes in. You’re looking at this with Ashton Jeanty at running back,” McShay said. “You need offensive line help. You need defensive help. You need more. You need all these things.”
Rather than selecting Mendoza outright, McShay floated a scenario in which the New York Jets trade up from the No. 2 spot to secure their quarterback of the future. The proposed move could offer mutual benefits.
The Jets hold two first-round picks this year – second and 16th overall – providing flexibility to make an aggressive play. In recent drafts, New York has built a young core with early selections, adding names such as Armand Membou, Olu Fashanu and Will McDonald. With Justin Fields not expected to return following a disappointing 2025 campaign, the franchise is once again searching for stability at quarterback.
From a stylistic standpoint, Mendoza fits what the Jets traditionally covet – size, arm strength and poise operating from the pocket. For New York, moving up one spot to eliminate uncertainty could be worth the draft capital.
Waiting for a historic class
For the Raiders, the value of trading down extends beyond simply accumulating extra picks this year. According to McShay, the bigger incentive may lie in what awaits in 2027.
That quarterback class is already generating buzz, with prospects such as Arch Manning, Dante Moore, LaNorris Sellers and Brendon Sorsby drawing early comparisons to some of the strongest draft groups in recent memory.
“Do the Raiders start to ask themselves with John Spytek, the GM, and Brady in his role, and with Kubiak as the head coach now, maybe are we better off passing this year?” McShay said.
“Move back, get an additional pick next year, get ourselves in position for an Arch Manning, a Dante Moore, a LaNorris Sellers, or Brendon Sorsby. Maybe the best quarterback draft we’ve ever had a year from now.”
The approach is not without risk. Passing on a Heisman-winning quarterback could backfire if Mendoza develops into a franchise cornerstone elsewhere. However, Las Vegas remains in the early stages of a rebuild. The offensive line needs reinforcement, and defensive depth remains a concern.
By trading down, the Raiders could stockpile assets to address multiple weaknesses while positioning themselves strategically for what many evaluators believe could be a landmark quarterback class.
Whether they follow McShay‘s advice or stick with the expected selection, the decision at No. 1 will shape the franchise’s direction for years to come.
