As the NBA season enters its final stretch, the conversation around the award feels more open than ever. Names like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama continue to dominate the discussion, each building a strong case in very different ways. With so many elite performances, the question becomes simple: what actually decides who wins MVP?

At its core, the MVP still starts with production. Points, assists, rebounds and efficiency matter, and players like Jokic with near triple-double averages or Luka with explosive scoring nights naturally stand out. But the award has never been about stats alone, and that is where the conversation becomes more complex.

What really decides the NBA MVP race

Team success continues to carry real weight. Historically, most MVP winners come from top teams, which strengthens Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s case as he leads one of the best records in the Western Conference. The logic is simple: if your numbers translate into wins, they carry more meaning.

Impact also goes beyond the box score. Voters look at how much a player changes everything around him, whether the offense runs through him, whether the team depends on him to function. This is where Luka Doncic stands out, controlling the pace, creating opportunities and carrying a heavy offensive load every night.

Consistency over the full season is another key factor. The MVP is not built on short stretches, but over months of high-level performance. Players must stay productive, avoid long slumps and, under current rules, play at least 65 games.

Then there is the one factor that cannot be measured: narrative. Every MVP season tells a story. It could be a breakout year, leading a young team, exceeding expectations or doing something rarely seen before. Victor Wembanyama’s case lives in that space, combining historic defensive presence with growing offensive impact in a way that continues to capture attention.

The final decision ultimately belongs to a panel of media members who cover the league closely. They rank players and assign points, meaning the award is not decided by a formula, but by how those performances are interpreted.

With no clear favorite, each candidate represents a different version of value: Shai brings wins and leadership, Jokic brings efficiency and consistency, Luka brings volume and control, and Wembanyama brings uniqueness and impact.

With less than 10 games remaining, every performance matters more. One dominant night, one key win, or one defining moment could shift the balance and ultimately decide who will be the next NBA MVP.