A small meteor about 1 meter (3 feet) in diameter burned up over Luzon Island in the Philippines, yesterday night local time. The celestial show was seen by many people, filmed, and photographed. That’s because, for only the ninth time ever, we were ready for it. Asteroid 2024 RW1 was observed before impacting Earth, meaning time and place of impact could actually be predicted.
The object was discovered about 11 hours before the impact by Catalina Sky Survey observer Jacqueline Fazekas. The space rock was not the biggest one among the nine asteroids predicted before impact, but it was definitely the fastest. It flew through the atmosphere at 20.8 kilometers (12 miles) per second, burning brightly as it plunged toward the Philippines Sea.
The eighth-ever object whose impact was predicted fell on Earth early this year and was the smallest yet, about half the size of 2024 RW. Some fragments from it were found outside Berlin, Germany. It turned out to be a very rare meteorite. The seventh object recorded was seen across Western Europe almost a year before.
Over the last decade, approaches to planetary protection have made significant leaps forward. Data from telescope observations can be sent quickly to algorithms that can predict impact probabilities, like in the nine cases we’ve had so far. Luckily all these events have been minor, small rocks that created a bright fireball and left some meteorites behind. Still, this shows that we should be able to spot something bigger as long as we are looking.
In February 2013, the infamous Chelyabinsk meteor burned up over Russia. The shockwave from the impact caused extensive damage and 1,613 injuries, luckily none of them fatal. That space rock was much larger – more like house-sized compared to this boulder – but the ability to predict if an area is at risk could in the future save countless lives.
One day we may even be able to stop larger asteroids before they ever reach here. NASA’s DART mission showed two years ago that we have the ability to change the orbit of an asteroid, but to do that, we need as much warning as possible. So constant vigilance and dedicated observatories remain key. Count this as another win for Earth vs potentially dangerous space rocks.
