Hundreds of scientists have gathered for an “emergency summit” in Australia to discuss the imperiled future of Antarctica. Concluding their findings in a statement published today, the polar researchers have a stark message: urgent action is needed to prevent the melting of Antarctica and catastrophic sea level rises around the world.
“Nowhere on Earth is there a greater cause of uncertainty in sea-level rise projections than from East Antarctica, in Australia’s backyard. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet alone holds enough water to raise global sea levels by approximately 50 meters [164 feet] if completely melted. Implications for our coastal cities and infrastructure are immense,” the statement reads.
“The services of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica – oceanic carbon sink and planetary air-conditioner – have been taken for granted. Global warming-induced shifts observed in the region are immense. Recent research has shown record-low sea ice, extreme heatwaves exceeding 40°C [72°F] above average temperatures, and increased instability around key ice shelves. Shifting ecosystems on land and at sea underscore this sensitive region’s rapid and unprecedented transformations,” it added
“Runaway ice loss causing rapid and catastrophic sea-level rise is possible within our lifetimes. Whether such irreversible tipping points have already passed is unknown,” the statement continues.
The 2024 Australian Antarctic Research Conference was held this week at the University of Tasmania in Hobart, involving nearly 500 polar experts from around the country, around two-thirds of whom are early-career researchers.
As per the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (AAPP), the organization behind the summit, the global sea level has risen by up to 10.5 centimeters (over 4 inches) in the past 30 years.
Melting ice from Antarctica, primarily as a result of climate change, is a major factor in the rise. The southernmost continent currently loses around 17 million tonnes of ice – equivalent to a giant ice cube measuring 260 meters (853 feet) on each side – every hour.
The rate of melting appears to be accelerating too. Satellite imagery suggests that Antarctica is losing ice more than six times faster than it was 30 years ago. Even East Antarctica, once thought to be relatively stable and immune to change, is starting to show signs of extreme upset, such as heatwaves and huge melting events.
If the world ramps up its greenhouse gas emissions, coastal cities in Australia are likely to see a devastating 80 centimeters (31 inches) of sea level rise by 2100, says the AAPP.
Adaptation could help to ease the problem, but ultimately the world needs to enact “deep, rapid, and sustained” reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to limit the catastrophe in the making.
“Our societies must set and meet targets to ‘bend the carbon curve’ as quickly as possible. Failure to rapidly reduce emissions – every year and every tonne – commits actual and future generations to greater sea-level rise,” the researchers go on.
“Every fraction of a degree matters.”
