The box office battle between Mickey 17 and Novocaine is too close to call, with neither expected to do blockbuster business.
One of the tightest box office battles for number one in recent memory is set to happen this weekend, with both the new release Novocaine, and WB’s second weekend holdover, Mickey 17 having a solid chance at coming in first place. However, neither are expected to make over $10 million, with this on track to be one of the slowest weekends of the year, as 2025’s box office grows more sluggish by the week.
While a $10 million start would be just fine for the modestly budgeted Novocaine, Mickey 17 badly needs a box office win. However, even if it drops a modest 50% this weekend (which is unlikely), it will still go down as a box office loser for Warner Bros. I’m expecting Novocaine to open with about $10 million, which would be a solid start for the movie, which launches The Boys’s Jack Quaid as a leading-man, in this comic actioner. The reviews have been solid (check out this one from our own Tyler Nichols), and his previous film, Companion, managed to open in roughly the same range.
Mickey 17 should make about $8 million, which would put it in a distant second place, with the final tally for this movie likely well under the $40 million mark. Ouch. Warner Bros has been having a rough year at the box office, with their next release, Alto Knights, barely getting promoted. At the same time, A Minecraft Movie is a big question mark for everyone, as is Ryan Coogler’s big-budget Sinners.
The Steven Soderbergh spy romp, Black Bag, should manage a third place finish with about $7 million, although given how close the race is this weekend, anything goes. It could surprise everyone and outperform Novocaine and Mickey 17 and open in first! Or it could totally flop – it’s hard to tell with these kinds of adult-targeted flicks.
Captain America: Brave New World will likely drop to fourth place, with about $6 million, while Paddington in Peru should round out the top five with $2.5 million. There’s also a chance Ketchup Entertainment’s Looney Tunes movie, The Day the Earth Blew Up, could crack the top five, although given how new the company is, it would be a big surprise (one of our critics loved it)
My predictions:
- Novocaine: $10 million
- Mickey 17: $8 million
- Black Bag: $7 million
- Captain America: Brave New World: $6 million
- Paddington in Peru: $2.5 million
