Scientists warn that the rapid rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria could trigger a dramatic spike in deaths, and we are not prepared. 

Researchers at Northern Arizona University took a hypothetical strain of E. coli resistant to all known forms of antibiotics (a state known as pan-resistance) and, using long-term data relating to sepsis cases in the US, modeled the impact it would have on mortality rates. Their results show that depending on levels of aggressiveness, deaths from sepsis could spike dramatically – increasing between 18 and 46-fold in just 5 years. According to the study’s authors, this “large and rapid change” is a stark departure from the “gradual change” many anticipate.

“This research assesses the likely speed and magnitude of those expected impacts and essentially says, ‘Hold up, this problem could rapidly become orders of magnitude worse than we’ve been planning for,’” lead author Benjamin Koch, a senior research scientist at Northern Arizona University said in a statement. 

While the hypothetical strain of E. coli involved in the study is just that – hypothetical – the researchers argue it is not a case of if it evolves, but when. According to Koch, it could be a century from now – or it could be a year. 

The discovery of antibiotics by Alexander Flemming in 1928 sparked a medical revolution, offering a range of safe and effective treatments for a whole host of ailments from pneumonia to urinary tract infections. However, the widespread use of antibiotics in modern-day healthcare also triggered a microbial arms race as bacteria continue to evolve mutations that allow them to evade the effect of these drugs. As with all forms of evolution, mutations that enable an organism to survive and reproduce become more common – and in this case, that has led to a rise in antibiotic-resistant bacteria such as MRSA.   

While it is a natural and unavoidable process, it could be argued that we have done our bit to accelerate antibiotic resistance by using these wonder drugs irresponsibly. Take, for example, the widespread use of antibiotics in farming. However, there are steps we can all take to help stall the process and protect ourselves against the mutating bacteria. This includes not using antibiotics unnecessarily – particularly in instances of viral infections, which they are utterly ineffective at treating. Equally, if you are prescribed antibiotics, scientists say it is important to complete the course and follow the instructions of your doctor. 

Still, individual action alone is unlikely to be enough and experts are increasingly calling for a more coordinated effort to conquer the threat of antibiotic resistance on a global scale. According to data published earlier this year, we are already seeing more than a million deaths a year as a result of infections resistant to drugs. By 2050, that could double. 

Fortunately, there are some promising developments in the pipeline as researchers endeavor to find novel ways to tackle drug-resistant bacteria. This includes the discovery of a new class of antibiotics called macrolones that could make it 100 million times harder for bugs to develop resistance. Another option is phage therapy, which uses viruses to fight bacteria. 

The study is published in the journal Communications Medicine.