Arch Manning entered his 2025 season at Texas surrounded by expectations that bordered on unreasonable. He was not just another highly rated quarterback. He was a Manning stepping into a college football ecosystem eager to crown the next generational star before the story had even begun.
What followed was a season that never quite matched the noise. Manning played well, showed growth, and flashed the tools that made him a coveted recruit. Still, Texas fell short of the College Football Playoff, and the Heisman conversation moved on without him. Around the sport, the verdict settled into a familiar place. Productive, promising, but not transcendent.
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That perception grew louder when Manning announced he would return to Austin for a fourth season, a decision revealed before Texas closed the year with a Citrus Bowl win over Michigan. The move reshaped the NFL draft outlook. For years, the 2026 NFL Draft had been framed as his moment. Another Manning stepping into the league, ready to take over. Instead, the spotlight shifted elsewhere.
“Arch Manning is kind of like the throwback 1970s quarterback with modern-day training and nutrition. I’m a huge fan of this guy. He’s physically, remarkably gifted. He’s intelligent when it comes to football, understanding of speed and space, all that. I think he’s wired the right way
Why Orlovsky sees a different evaluation
While much of the draft chatter cooled, Dan Orlovsky went the opposite direction. Appearing on The Dan Patrick Show, the ESPN analyst delivered an unambiguous assessment. If Manning were eligible right now, Orlovsky believes he would be the runaway No. 1 overall pick.
Orlovsky framed Manning as a throwback quarterback equipped with modern advantages. Strong frame, live arm, mobility, and a deep understanding of how defenses move. More than that, Orlovsky emphasized how Manning processes the game and handles pressure. Traits that are difficult to quantify but heavily valued in NFL front offices.
What stood out most in Orlovsky’s breakdown was his focus on Manning’s uneven college experience. Rather than viewing it as a flaw, he sees it as preparation. Multiple seasons of hype, criticism, and unmet expectations can sharpen a quarterback. According to Orlovsky, watching Manning compete from the sideline and respond to adversity suggests a mindset built for the professional level.
Orlovsky even pointed to a specific landing spot. If Manning were in this year’s draft, he said the Las Vegas Raiders should select him first overall. Instead, with Manning staying at Texas, early mock drafts now commonly project Fernando Mendoza of the Indiana Hoosiers as the top choice.
“He’d be the runaway No. 1 pick.
Manning’s path is no longer following a neat script. But if Orlovsky’s evaluation holds, the delay may only strengthen his case when the NFL finally comes calling.
