Captain America: Brave New World will easily hold on to first place, but may lose a huge chunk of its audience.
As important as opening weekends are for Marvel flicks (or tentpole movies in general), it’s the second weekend that will reveal if a movie will be considered a hit or not. Captain America: Brave New World had a solid (if unspectacular) opening last weekend, making $89.8 million, but the word-of-mouth on it hasn’t been good, with the film scoring a B-minus CinemaScore rating. While Deadpool & Wolverine managed a strong second-week hold (it only dropped 53%), two previous Marvel films had much steeper drops. The Marvels, which had a horrible opening, experienced one of the worst second-weekend drops of all time, falling a disastrous 78.1%, while Ant-Man & the Wasp: Quantumania also fell 69% in week two.
While I doubt Brave New World will fall-off as badly as either of those did, I expect it to decline about 65% in week 2, meaning we’re looking at about a $32-33 million gross. Anything above that will be a small victory for Marvel, with it possible a lack of competition may help it overcome the middling word of mouth.
Meanwhile, Osgood Perkins’s buzzy horror flick, The Monkey, should have no trouble taking second place, with a $15 million gross. Neon has had a lot of luck launching horror flicks, and a wide array of word-of-mouth screenings and critical praise (it currently sits at 85% on RT), means fans of the director’s last movie, Longlegs, will no doubt check it out this weekend.
Paddington in Peru should be able to hold on to third place with a $9 million weekend, as now that Dog Man is on VOD, its staying power should diminish. I expect it to be narrowly beaten out by Heart Eyes, which is turning into a word-of-mouth it, that should make about $7 million this weekend, while Dog Man should make about $6 million
Here are our predictions:
- Captain America: Brave New World: $33 million
- The Monkey: $15 million
- Paddington in Peru: $9 million
- Heart Eyes: $7 million
- Dog Man: $6 million
How do you think Brave New World will fare in week 2? Let us know in the comments!
