Captain America: Brave New World is on track to top the weekend box office, but looks unlikely to break even.
As we predicted earlier this week, Captain America: Brave New World is easily topping the box office for a third weekend in a row. Good news for Disney, right? Well, not so fast. The movie could gross $15 million this weekend. Still, the domestic total of $163 million is nothing to brag about, with it looking increasingly unlikely that the film will cross the $200 million mark. That would make it one of the lowest-grossing Marvel movies, comparable to the poorly received Eternals and Black Widow – which opened during a pandemic and had a day-and-date PVOD release. While Disney maintains the movie cost somewhere in the $180 million range, given all the reshoots, the buzz is the movie actually cost well over $300 million, meaning it would need to make at least $600 million worldwide, a number that doesn’t seem achievable at the moment.
In other news, another Marvel actor, Simu Liu, has a movie out this weekend: Last Breath, a fact-based thriller in which he co-stars with Woody Harrelson. While its estimated $7 million weekend sounds low, given that Deadline says Focus acquired it for only $5 million, it should turn a nice profit for them. It’s a solid little movie—check out our review HERE.
Osgood Perkins’s The Monkey also saw a more reasonable fall-off than expected. It is on track for a $6.2 million weekend, which is only a 55% decline—which is great for a horror film. Family flicks Paddington in Peru and Dog Man should round out the top five.
All things considered, 2025 is off to an abysmal start at the box office; if you consider that, a year ago, we had Dune: Part Two raking in big bucks. March has some big releases, but none of them are expected to perform as well as Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire or Godzilla x Kong did last year. Mickey 17 is widely expected to underperform; while Novocaine might do well, it is still a relatively low-key release aimed at a young audience, meaning it’ll turn a nice profit but won’t be huge. Disney’s Snow White could make good money, but it will have to overcome the toxic buzz. We shall see – but not a great start to 2025 at all.
