Captain America takes on perhaps his greatest foe ever this weekend; no not Red Hulk…a friendly British bear named Paddington.
This weekend, all eyes at the box office are on Captain America: Brave New World, as it’s being seen by many as a barometer against whether or not audiences are getting sick of superhero fare. Indeed, the failure of The Marvels must have sent a chill down the spine of many Disney execs, with it once assumed that any movie being the Marvel banner was guaranteed to open well. That proved not to be the case, although the smash success of Deadpool & Wolverine proved that audiences would still turn out in droves if they had a good reason to.
As such, if Captain America: Brave New World manages to open to over $100 million this weekend, any talk of “superhero fatigue” will likely fall by the wayside. Industry estimates have it opening around $90 million, but I actually think it will open in the range of Black Widow, which had an $82 million opening but also opened during the pandemic and had a simultaneous debut on VOD. An $80 million opening won’t be a total disaster for the pricey flick, but it will also signal that the MCU is in bad need of a retooling, with Marvel: Phase 5 having proven to be a bit of a disaster for the once unstoppable brand.
In a smart bit of counterprogramming, Sony’s releasing Paddington in Peru, the third movie in the franchise, in a bid to capture the family audience. The film has already made a solid chunk of change overseas, having grossed over $100 million. Reviews have generally been good, although many have bemoaned the fact that director Paul King didn’t return for the third film, which failed to live up to the acclaimed Paddington 2. It’s interesting to note that, besides the great reviews, Paddington 2 flopped in North America, so one should keep expectations in check for the sequel, with it looking like it’ll open in the $15 million range.
Given that it’s a holiday weekend, family fare should perform well, with Dog Man likely to hit third place with about $7 million. Heart Eyes should be right behind it with about $5 million, while Love Hurts has a chance to round out the top five with $3 million, although it might be overtaken by the surprisingly resilient Mufasa: The Lion King.
Here are our predictions:
- Captain America: Brave New World: $80 million
- Paddington in Peru: $15 million
- Dog Man: $7 million
- Heart Eyes: $5 million
- Love Hurts: $3 million
Are my lowball estimates for Brave New World on point? Let me know in the comments!
