Before Hollywood closes the books on another year at the box office, the holiday rush at theaters is about to begin, starting with James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash to grease the wheels. Cameron’s sci-fi threequel hardly needs an introduction, as Avatar fans are likely primed and ready to join Sully and the crew for another visually splendiferous adventure on Pandora. The question on everyone’s mind, though, is how charmed is the Avatar franchise’s third round? According to analysts, it could earn anywhere from $340 million to $380 million worldwide in its first weekend. Wow! However, as impressive as that might seem (and it is), it’s worth noting that the second Avatar film, Avatar: The Way of Water, hit the ground running with $444 million during its opening salvo.
If the numbers hold, Avatar: Fire and Ash could become the year’s second-best opening for an MPA title after Disney’s Zootopia 2, which debuted with $560.3 million last month, shattering another box office burner debut when compared to Lilo & Stitch‘s $341 million launch. Number crunchers estimate Fire and Ash could earn $250M-$275M overseas, whereas The Way of Water debuted to $310M during its opening gambit.
While it could look like interest in the Avatar franchise is on the decline, it’s worth noting that The Way of Water had nine days to rack up dollars ahead of the Christmas holiday, while Fire and Ash only had five. There are other factors to consider as well, including availability for early screenings. Avatar: Fire and Ash is an event film, and the most hardcore of fans will wait to see the movie in an ideal setting. If they don’t score the tickets they want from the start, they’ll wait until the perfect time to strike, which could be a few days after launch. There’s also the runtime to consider. Fire and Ash is an astonishing 3-hour and 17-minute sci-fi epic, which may deter some people from committing to such a lengthy runtime.
The first reactions to Avatar: Fire and Ash emerged several weeks ago, and they have been mainly positive. Our own Chris Bumbray said, “Avatar: Fire and Ash is obviously a must see in IMAX 3D. Like The Way of Water, it’s unbelievably immersive. I think it’s a minor step down from the last one, but the 3 hour plus running time whizzes by and I’m definitely always down for another trip to Pandora.” Few could deny the visual spectacle on display, but some of the more critical reactions slammed the film as being more of the same and overly long.
Will you see Avatar: Fire and Ash during its opening weekend? Let us know in the comments section below.
