With yesterday’s defeat at Brighton, City suffered their fourth consecutive defeat, something unprecedented in Pep Guardiola’s career as a coach until now. With Bayern, in 2014-15, he also lost four in a row, but one was in the Cup in the penalty shootout: 1-1 Dortmund (and penalties); 2-0 Leverkusen; 3-0 Barca in Champions League; and 0-1 Augsburg. The Brighton defeat adds to the previous three, which were: in the Carabao Cup (2-1 Tottenham); in the Premier League (2-1 Bournemouth); and in the Champions League (4-1 Sporting CP).

The league defeat, after letting a 1-0 lead slip, came after the 4-1 defeat in Lisbon. City had not conceded four goals in Europe since October 2016 (4-0 against Barca) and interrupted a run of 25 games without defeat in the Champions League (excluding penalty shootout defeats) that Pep had enjoyed since May 2022.

Pep has never been so down… but let’s look at some of the causes that have led to this, before the international break and then facing Tottenham, their next opponents… and which could lead to a fifth consecutive defeat.

Rodri’s absence is a separate chapter, as he is their most important player. Pep tries to find a replacement with partial solutions: Kovacic, Gndogan, Matheus Nunes… Going to the winter market is a solution.

Dependence on Haaland. Of the 22 goals the team has scored in the Premier League, 12 are from the Norwegian, who also scored yesterday. The injuries to Doku, De Bruyne and Grealish increase this dependence, plus the departure of Julian Alvarez.

Pep’s last year. The Catalan arrived at the Etihad in the summer of 2016 and this could be his last campaign, as his contract expires in 2025. This does create some instability in the team’s environment. In addition, Txiki Begiristain, the team’s director of football, will also leave his post, and will be replaced by Portuguese Hugo Viana.

Spine on the wire. Not only is Guardiola’s future up in the air, but so is much of the spine that lifted the treble of Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup in 2023. From back to front, between 2025 and 2026 Ederson, Walker, Stones, Gundogan, De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva are out of contract. Many contracts to be resolved that, surely, do not have many players with their heads where they should be.

For years, City were among the best squads in the world… because of the quality of their players and because they had a rotation that practically allowed Pep to have two starting elevens. However, Pep has been losing profiles in recent times that have left several positions orphaned. One is the pivot, with the departure of Fernandinho, which was never covered by Kalvin Phillips (now at Ipswich); and the second, this summer, with the departure of Julian Alvarez to Atletico in attack.

Pep always invents and reinvents himself (inside full-backs, central as a midfielder…), but he has been in England for so many years that his rivals seem to have got the measure of him in defence and attack.

Yes, despite this crisis, despite everything, City is (only) five points below Liverpool (they are recoverable) and has the Champions League still very open, as well as the FA Cup (the Carabao is already out). So… the ‘anti-Pep’ should not be too confident, as City can still win the most important titles.