Chris
A Rough Start for the 2026 Box Office
It can’t be denied that 2026 is off to a rough start at the box office, with none of January’s new releases managing to dethrone James Cameron’s resilient Avatar: Fire and Ash from the top of the heap. While no one really thought Paramount’s Primate had a shot, the failure of last week’s 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, despite excellent reviews, cast a bit of a chill over the industry. While no one expected it to make anywhere near the $30 million 28 Years Lateropened with, the $13.5 million debut was brutal.
Can Mercy Break the January Slump?
Amazon/MGM, which has a robust slate of original, non-franchise films opening this year (I’m looking forward to their Crime 101), is taking a stab at launching its sci-fi thriller Mercy, which benefits from IMAX 3D screens. While the notion of a sci-fi action movie starring Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson seems like a surefire hit, Mercy is actually another of director Timur Bekmambetov’s “screenlife” films, where the majority of the action takes place on computer screens.
The premise is cool, in that it stars Pratt as a cop accused of murder who must prove his innocence in ninety minutes to an AI program (Ferguson) using a supercomputer. However, it remains to be seen if that concept can actually put butts in seats in movie theaters. Indeed, it sounds very much like a streaming movie, and while Pratt will bring in some people, there’s no way this one makes over $10 million.
Avatar: Fire and Ash Holds the Top Spot
As such, expect Avatar: Fire and Ash to once again take the top spot, with about $13 million as it closes in on the $400 million mark domestically. My guess is it will finally be unseated next week by Sam Raimi’s Send Help, which should appeal to genre fans and anyone looking for a creepy date-night movie.
Can The Bone Temple Rally?
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple actually has a shot at rallying a bit this weekend, so we’ll see if the A-minus CinemaScore (excellent for a horror movie) does the trick. At best, I see it making about $7 million.
The Race for Fourth Place
Fourth place should be a toss-up between Zootopia 2 and The Housemaid, which are both on track to make about $6 million apiece. I’ll give The Housemaid the edge this time, as the holiday weekend allowed Zootopia 2 to overtake it last week.
Here are our predictions:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash: $13 million
- Mercy: $10 million
- 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple: $7 million
- The Housemaid: $6 million
- Zootopia 2: $5.5 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments!
