Fernando Mendoza has transformed from a modestly regarded college quarterback into one of the most intriguing prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft.

After transferring from California to Indiana, Mendoza has shown a combination of size, accuracy, and mental toughness that is turning heads around the league.

Scouts now view him as a potential first-round pick, with some projecting him as a possible fit for the Las Vegas Raiders‘ ongoing quarterback needs.

From under-the-radar talent to top-tier hope

Mendoza didn’t begin his college career under bright lights. In California, he was a serviceable passer who posted solid but unspectacular numbers.

But when he transferred to Indiana for the 2025 season, everything changed. In the Hoosiers‘ offense, surrounded by better protection and receiving talent, his skills began to flourish.

Scouts note that at 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, Mendoza boasts the prototypical NFL frame, but it’s far more than size.

According to one evaluator, Mendoza “has ‘wow’ throws and playmaking passer ability … He can anticipate postsnap.”

Another praised his pocket toughness, arm strength, and ability to make precise throws under duress.

Why the Raiders might be sold on Mendoza

The Las Vegas Raiders entered 2025 with a revamped quarterback roster: the team signed veteran Geno Smith, who earned a twoyear extension, while younger QBs such as Aidan O’Connell returned from injury and prospects like Cam Miller remain on the practice squad as developmental options.

That said, none of the current options has quieted doubts that the franchise still lacks a longterm answer under center.

As the 2025 season progresses, Mendoza‘s performance metrics continue to impress. He’s racked up touchdown totals with remarkably few turnovers, and his completion rate hovers in the low 70s.

Analysts note he handles pressure well, can make off-platform throws on the move, and maintains composure even when the pocket collapses.

In a recent mock draft, some projection models landed him with the Raiders at No.7, arguing that with their shaky quarterback situation, adding a young, prototypical passer could make sense.

One summary of his game described him as “a poised, accurate passer who has plus arm talent, consistently delivering catchable balls on time and in rhythm and excelling on layered secondlevel routes.”

Still, Mendoza isn’t flawless. Some analysts warn that though he can run when the play breaks down, he isn’t an overly elusive athlete.

Others note his anticipation and pocket awareness, while good, can be inconsistent, especially on deep or improvised plays where his comfort zone shrinks.

Mendoza‘s draft stock will rise or fall based on the rest of his season: big games, pressure moments, and consistency.

As Mike Renner wrote, “With two NFL-caliber receivers catching passes for him this fall and a couple more NFL-caliber linemen blocking for him, Mendoza‘s skyhigh ceiling has been on display on a nearweekly basis.”