The fear of a collision between Earth and a meteorite is growing. The European Space Agency (ESA), in constant collaboration with the US agency (NASA), is still trying to gather as much data as possible before it disappears from our field of vision and reappears in 2028. The probability that on December 22, 2032, the asteroid will collide with Earth has increased to 2.3%, a total of eight tenths more than the first forecasts. This is a danger that is becoming more serious and is putting all space agencies on alert for the first time.
These are figures that could continue to vary until next April, when more will be known about the asteroid, which has been named 2024 YR4. It will be in that month when it will no longer be visible from terrestrial observatories until its trajectory returns to our view in 2028 and then the date indicated in 2032. It is even believed to be slightly larger than initial calculations, between 40 and 100 meters in diameter, a size slightly larger than the length of a football field (90 meters long) such as the Bernabeu, Camp Nou or Mestalla.
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The meteorite could destroy a city the size of Madrid, London or Paris
A real danger to Earth
The Earth has a very long life and to say that an asteroid like this could collide is part of the history of our planet. “This is the first time that the United Nations has had to alert and activate the planetary defense protocol, which sounds a bit like Star Wars, but that is effectively what it is called,” says Jorge Bolivar, a specialist in the History of Science, in Canal Sur’s ‘Mesa de analisis’ program. Although as he himself says, this does not mean that it is the first time that an asteroid like this has collided with the Earth.
“In 1908, in Siberia, an asteroid roughly the size of this one fell. It was called the ‘Tunguska event.’ What we know happened was that it affected some 2,000 square kilometers of land, ripped some 80 million trees from the forest where it fell and killed, it is believed, about three people. In other words, an asteroid of this size, if that tiny possibility that it will fall to Earth is confirmed and our planetary defenses do not work, then it could destroy a city the size of Madrid, London or Paris,” he describes.
Spain is outside that orbit, but the Canary Islands may have a minimal chance of being in its path
However, Jorge Bolivar downplays the chances of collision and calls for calm: “If it were to fall, and I say it is very difficult, the arc where it would fall would be from South America to Africa and the Pacific. That is to say, Spain is outside that orbit, but possibly the Canary Islands would have a minimal possibility that they would be in its path. I would not worry too much because, generally, the closer the date of passage near the Earth, the more the possibility of it falling is reduced,” he concludes.
