There’s mounting belief among NFL executives and scouts that Arch Manning shouldn’t declare for the 2026 draft – they want him back at Texas Longhorns for at least another season.
That message, delivered anonymously but widely echoed, amounts to a clear warning: rushing into the pros now could do more harm than good for both teams and for Arch’s development.
Manning – the heir of a famous QB family, nephew to Peyton Manning and Eli Manning – has had a turbulent but promising season under center.
After limited action the past two years, he finally became the full-time starter. In the first half of this season, results were modest: a completion rate around 60 percent, and mixed results in wins and losses.
But in recent games his play has improved – yet insiders still argue that one good season doesn’t erase the lack of long-term data.
Outside the Longhorns‘ program, the hesitancy is palpable. One anonymous exec told reporters: “It doesn’t benefit us (in the NFL) if all these guys come out early and aren’t ready.”
Another noted teams prefer to evaluate quarterbacks over a longer period of real college reps rather than gamble on raw athleticism.
Why scouts urge patience
With only one full season as starter – and previous years spent mostly backing up – Manning lacks the kind of extensive college tape many teams require before entrusting him with a franchise quarterback role.
Experts like Mel Kiper Jr. have publicly argued that Arch Manning needs more development time, saying he’s not currently among their top-10 QB prospects.
Then there’s the financial and strategic upside of staying in college. Manning reportedly ranks among the highest-valued college athletes under Name-Image-Likeness (NIL) deals, meaning he could continue earning – and building his brand – without sacrificing a draft slot.
As things stand, many around the NFL see 2026 as too soon. They’d rather let time refine his skills and judgement before entering one of the most unpredictable – and competitive – quarterback classes in recent memory.
