Possibly my favourite FTSE 100 share of all is one I’ve never actually bought. So how come?

We have a complicated history. It goes back to Christmas 2022 when I named Intermediate Capital Group (LSE:ICP) my top passive income and growth stock pick for 2023. It’s one of the best calls I’ve made.

The private equity specialist was languishing in FTSE 250 obscurity at the time, but not for much longer.

Intermediate Capital Group provides capital for acquisitions, pre-IPO financing and management buy-outs (and buy-ins). Yet after a rough 2022 for the stock market in general and risk stocks in particular, it looked like a brilliant buying opportunity.

At the time I highlighted the opportunity. Its shares were trading at 6.4 times earnings and yielding 6.5% a year, covered 2.4 times by earnings. Management boasted a solid track record of increasing shareholder payouts, with the dividend more than doubling from 30p a share to 76p in just four years. Plus it had liquidity of £1.3bn.

I swore that “when I have some cash to spare after Christmas, I will buy it”. Then my fickle heart forgot all about it.

Next time I checked out the stock at Christmas 2023, I discovered it had smashed its way into the FTSE 100 after rocketing 53.35% in a year. By then, it was too late. I felt I’d missed my chance.

I was wrong. The shares have skyrocketed another 59.79% in the past 12 months. Talk about the one that got away!

Today, Intermediate Capital Group isn’t as cheap as it was, trading at 12.39 times earnings. That’s still below the average FTSE 100 price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4 though.

It’s still a top dividend growth stock

The 3.71% dividend yield isn’t as high as it was either, although it’s fractionally above the index average at 3.5%. 

First-quarter results, published on 16 July, were pretty upbeat. Assets under management jumped 23.7% year-on-year to $101bn, beating consensus estimates of $97.82bn. However, only $70bn was fee earning, slightly less than hoped.

The group deployed $3.9bn of funds in Q1 and achieved realisations of $2.5bn, up from $1bn and $600m year-on-year, amid “elevated” transaction activity. Yet its shares are flat for three months, and dipped 8.39% in the last month. Is this finally my moment?

I think it is. Instead of moaning about lost opportunities, it’s time I grabbed this one. I might wait until after next week’s budget, amid rumours that the government may target private equity. After that, I’ve got no excuse.

I accept future returns may be bumpy, as they tend to jump up and down depending on disposals. Yet this type of stock that could fly when interest rates dip (assuming they do) and investor sentiment picks up.

I’m crossing my fingers for a Santa Rally and plan to buy Intermediate Capital Group before then, to enjoy some Christmas cheer. I’ve waited long enough.