Ty Simpson, the former quarterback for the Alabama Crimson Tide, has emerged as one of the most intriguing names for the NFL Draft with rumors of a possible move to the New York Jets. But experts caution that his potential might come with a steep learning curve.

Once projected as a top pick, Simpson‘s combination of limited experience and inconsistent late-season performance has led to speculation that he could slide in the draft.

ESPN NFL Draft Analyst Matt Miller questioned whether Simpson will be viewed to be as valuable as other quarterbacks around given his limited playtime.

“I look at a quarterback who started 15 games in college and doesn’t have those elite physical traits-6’1, 210 pounds. The first nine games of the year were great, but you get into SEC competition, the final six were not good at all,” said Miller.

“And yes, he was banged up, and yes, the offensive line wasn’t great this year, but Ty Simpson‘s a really interesting quarterback conversation.”

Simpson‘s primary concern lies in his lack of experience. With only 15 career starts, NFL scouts are left evaluating two contrasting versions of his play.

In his first nine games, he completed nearly 67 percent of passes, throwing for 21 touchdowns with only one interception, displaying impressive efficiency and command.

However, injuries and tougher SEC competition caused a noticeable decline over the final six games, with his completion rate dropping to 60 percent and yards per attempt decreasing as the Crimson Tide offense struggled.

Overall, Simpson finished his collegiate career with 3,948 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and five interceptions.

A tough outcome on the big stage

The College Football Playoff quarterfinal against Indiana proved particularly challenging, as Simpson was sidelined with a fractured rib.

This injury, coupled with his late-season performance dip, has left NFL teams uncertain about which version of Simpson they might be drafting.

The changing landscape of NFL free agency has also complicated matters. Teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals, and Indianapolis Colts have been linked to Simpson.

But Miller believes some of the early opportunities may no longer exist: “So, I think the landing spots for him shrank due to free agency. I don’t think Arizona drafts him at number three overall,” he said.

“Also, I think that maybe there is a round two where they trade back into round one if they are in love with him. I don’t think the New York Jets draft him at two. Maybe they’re an option in the middle of the first round.

“But it feels like a game of musical chairs where the ideal spots for him might be more round two than round one.”

Despite the concerns, Simpson remains confident about his preparation at Alabama.

“I just told ’em, like, Alabama is the best place to get you prepared for the NFL, I fully believe that,” he said.

“I think with coach Nick Saban‘s infrastructure that he implemented there, and then coach Kalen DeBoer coming in and keeping that same structure is super real and prepares you for the NFL better than most colleges.”

A risk for NFL teams

For the Jets and other teams evaluating him, the decision will hinge on whether Simpson‘s early-season promise outweighs his late-season struggles.

While he possesses clear talent, the combination of limited starts and SEC competition exposure has created a high-risk, high-reward scenario in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Teams may ultimately wait for a safer landing spot, potentially allowing Simpson to slide into the second round or a late first-round trade.

Given what happened to Shedeur Sanders in 2025, it is conceivable that Simpson could slide from the first round depending on how NFL teams view his stock.

Right now, there are some doubts that he can do little to eradicate.