Phoenix Group (LSE: PHNX), a key player in the UK’s long-term savings and retirement sector could be at a critical juncture, with shifting demographics in the UK and an uncertain economic outlook. With the Phoenix Group share price down heavily in the last few years, I’ve taken a closer look at whether there could be an opportunity for investors.

Recent results

The latest results reveal a 19% annual increase in cash generation, reaching £647m in the first half of 2024. This growth is a positive indicator of operational efficiency. Furthermore, a 15% increase in operating profit, driven primarily by the capital-light pensions and savings business, demonstrates an ability to capitalise on core competencies.

However, the decision to halt the sale of SunLife, its over-50s protection business, marks a significant strategic shift. While CEO Andy Briggs frames this as aligning with a vision of becoming the UK’s leading retirement savings and income business, it raises questions about the long-term focus and ability to streamline operations.

Dividend concerns

The firm’s generous 9.13% dividend yield is undoubtedly attractive to income-focused investors. However, the sustainability of these payments is a critical concern. The negative payout ratio, now at an alarming -382%, indicates that the company isn’t covering its dividend payments with current earnings or free cash flow.

While high dividend yields can be maintained in the short term through cash or debt, this approach is clearly not sustainable over the long term. To me, potential investors should carefully consider whether this high yield compensates for the associated risks, and what a cut in the dividend could mean for the share price if required.

The valuation

Valuation calculations present a fairly mixed bag. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.3 times suggests the company might be undervalued. Conversely, the price-to-book ratio of 1.2 times indicates that the company is trading slightly above its net asset value, which is not unusual for a financial services firm with a strong market position.

A discounted cash flow (DCF) calculation, taking into account future cash flows, suggests the current share price is about 5% below fair value. I’d say this slight discount is justified due to the uncertainty in the sector.

What’s next?

The company’s focus on the UK retirement market positions it to potentially benefit from demographic trends, including an ageing population and increasing demand for retirement solutions. The recent expansion into the annuity market and launch of new retirement products demonstrate a proactive approach to capturing market share.

The company’s strong cash generation and strategic position in a growing market sector are positive factors. However, I’m extremely concerned about the sustainability of the high dividend yield, and the company’s ability to navigate economic uncertainties.

Clearly, the long-term growth potential of the UK retirement market is significant, but depends on management’s ability to maintain market position and expand product offerings. Only time will tell if this strategy will pay off.

Not for me

So while Phoenix Group shows potential for growth in a crucial market sector, the recent decline in the share price shows it also carries significant risks. The future of the company will depend on management’s ability to navigate the evolving retirement market landscape, while maintaining financial stability. I don’t particularly like the look of the fundamentals here, so I’ll be looking for other opportunities.